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const CONVERSATION_PAGE='Community: conversationPage';//evar203 mapped variablesconst CARD_CREATED_DATE='digitalData.community.communityAttributes.cardCreatedDate';const COUNT_CORRECT_ANSWER='digitalData.community.communityAttributes.countCorrectAnswer';const COMMUNITY_FLAG='digitalData.community.communityInfo.communityFlag'; const COUNT_REPLY='digitalData.community.communityAttributes.countReply'; const RELATED_CONVERSATION_ACTION='relatedConversationClick';const COMMUNITY_DD_PROPERTY='digitalData.community';const CONVERSATION_REPORT='Community: conversationReportClick';const REPLY_REPORT='Community: repliesReportClick';const MARKED_CORRECT='Community: Marked as Correct';const UNMARKED_CORRECT='Community: UnMarked as Correct';const REPLY_MARKED_CORRECT='replyMarkedCorrect';const REPLY_UNMARKED_CORRECT='replyUnmarkedCorrect';const CONVERSATION_FOLLOW='Community: conversationFollowClick';const REPLY_FOLLOW='Community: repliesFollowClick';const CONVERSATION_UNFOLLOW='Community: conversationUnfollowClick';const REPLY_UNFOLLOW='Community: repliesUnfollowClick';const SOPHIA_EVENTS = 'digitalData.sophiaResponse.fromPage';const CC_LINK1 = 'Community: CCD_';const CC_LINK2 = 'Click';const CC_LINK_CLICK = 'ccdLinkClick';const CC_MANAGE_ACCOUNT_CLICK = 'manageAccountLinkClick'; const REC_CONVO_FEEDBACK_SHOWN='digitalData.community.communityAttributes.recConvoFeedbackShown';const CONVERSATION_EDIT='Community: conversationEditClick';const CONVERSATION_VIEW_HISTORY='Community: conversationViewHistoryClick';const CONVERSATION_MOVE_MERGE='Community: conversationMoveMergeClick';const CONVERSATION_SPAM='Community: conversationSpamClick';const CONVERSATION_DELETE='Community: conversationDeleteClick';const CONVERSATION_BAN_USER='Community: conversationBanUserClick';const REPLY_BAN_USER='Community: repliesBanUserClick';const REPLY_SPAM='Community: repliesSpamClick';const REPLY_DELETE='Community: repliesDeleteClick';const REPLY_MOVE_MERGE='Community: repliesMoveMergeClick';const REPLY_VIEW_HISTORY='Community: repliesViewHistoryClick';const REPLY_EDIT='Community: repliesEditClick';const REPLIES_IN_RESPONSE_TO ='Community: repliesInResponseToClick';$.when(promise1).done( function () {userProfilePromise.then(trackConversationPageLoad);}); function trackConversationPageLoad() { //Conversation Page Load Tracking const subject = $('.userStrip').attr('data-message-subject');let messageUid = '9584194';const tempDD = digitalData; let boardId = normalizeBoardId('photoshop'); let community = normalizeCategoryBoardId(); let contentType = getBoardType(boardId); //track new post success trackNewPostSuccess(community, subject, messageUid); //track merge message success trackMergeSuccess(subject,community,'9584194',contentType); //recover digital data property digitalData = tempDD; const valArr = location.pathname.split('/'); let pageName; let layoutView = 'threaded'; if('ForumTopicPage' === 'IdeaPage'){ layoutView = 'linear'; //Ideas do not support threaded view so it will always be linear } let sortOrder = 'by_date_ascending'=="by_date_ascending"?"Earliest":"Latest"; if(PAGE_LANG!=='en'){ pageName = location.hostname + ':t5:' + boardId + ':' + 'conversationPage'; } else if(valArr && valArr.length > 2) { pageName = location.hostname + ':' + valArr[1] + ':' + community + ':' + 'conversationPage'; } if(pageName) { setDigitalDataProperty(PAGE_NAME, pageName); } if(messageUid) { setDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_ID, messageUid); } setDigitalDataProperty(LANGUAGE, getLocale()); setDigitalDataProperty(SITE_SECTION, CONVERSATION_PAGE); setPrimaryEvent(CONVERSATION_PAGE, 'pageload');let replyCount = 0;if($('.reply-count__text').length > 0) {replyCount = $('.reply-count__text').attr('data-reply-count'); } let status = ''; let voteCount = 0; if($('.message-status-link').length > 0) {status = $('.message-status-link')[0].innerText;} if($('#messageKudosCount_').length > 0){ voteCount = $('#messageKudosCount_')[0].getAttribute('data-upvote-count'); } const correctAnswerCount = $('.correct-answer-div').attr('data-correct-answer-count'); const creationDate = $('.roleTimestamp').attr('data-post-time'); setDigitalDataProperty(CARD_CREATED_DATE, creationDate); //setDigitalDataProperty(COUNT_REPLY, replyCount?replyCount:'0'); setDigitalDataProperty(COUNT_CORRECT_ANSWER, correctAnswerCount?correctAnswerCount:'0'); setDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_CONTENT_TYPE, contentType); setDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_CATEGORY, community); setDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_TITLE, subject); let solnType = $('.conversation-page-container').attr('data-solution-type'); if(parseInt(solnType) 0) { solnType = '1'; } else if($('#special-reply-pinned').length > 0) { solnType = '4'; } } solnType = CONVERSATION_FLAG_TYPE[solnType]; let flag = solnType; if($('.body-outer-container').attr('data-pin-flag') === "true"){ if(flag != ''){ flag = flag + ';Pinned'; }else{ flag = 'Pinned'; } } if(flag != ''){ setDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_FLAG, flag); } if(document.getElementById('feedback_view_1')) { setDigitalDataProperty(REC_CONVO_FEEDBACK_SHOWN, 'true'); dnmsTrackConversationFeedback('render', 'feedback-answer', [messageUid, community, null, 'radio button']); } setDigitalDataProperty(FILTERS, [createGPSortInfoObj(sortOrder)]); setDigitalDataProperty(SOPHIA_EVENTS,[{'CampaignId': relatedConvCampaignId, 'ControlGroupId': relatedConvControlGroupId, 'VariationId': relatedConvVariationId, 'ActionBlockId': relatedConvActionBlockId}, {'CampaignId': manageAccountCampaignId, 'ControlGroupId': manageAccountControlGroupId, 'VariationId': manageAccountVariationId, 'ActionBlockId': manageAccountActionBlockId}]); captureSnapshot('state'); //dunamis api call dnmsConversationPageRender(community, replyCount, subject, getCommunityCurrentPageNum(), getConversationTags().toString(), messageUid, layoutView, flag, status, voteCount); cleanDigitalDataProperties([SOPHIA_EVENTS]); if ($('.promos-wrapper').length > 0){ let promotype = $('.promos-wrapper').attr('data-promotype'); let promosubtype = $('.promos-wrapper').attr('data-promosubtype'); dnmsPromoRender(promotype, promosubtype, community, messageUid); } //Track related conversation clickdetectRelatedConversationsLoad(); //track status update success if(localStorage.hasOwnProperty('messageStatusUpdate')){ trackStatusUpdateSuccess(); } //Track reply post success trackReplyPostSuccess(); let lsCleanUpArr = ['gpEditMessageType', 'gpEditMessagePageNum', 'gpReportMessageDetails', 'gpReportMessageType'];clearStorage(lsCleanUpArr);cleanDigitalDataProperties(['digitalData.primaryEvent.eventInfo', FILTERS]);} function getPayload(params){ var sophiaPayload = []; try{ params = params.split("&"); var keyMapping = {'aid':'ActionBlockId','campid':'CampaignId', 'cid':'ContainerId','cgid':'ControlGroupId','tid':'TreatmentId','vid':'VariationId','sid':'SurfaceId'}; var sophiaMap = {}; for(let i=0;i 1 && (keys[0] in keyMapping)){ sophiaMap[keyMapping[keys[0]]] = keys[1]; } } sophiaPayload.push(sophiaMap); }catch(err){ console.log(err); } return sophiaPayload;}function trackNewPostSuccess(communityName, subject, messageUid) { const npsDD = localStorage.getItem('npsDigitalData'); if(npsDD) {const ddVal = JSON.parse(npsDD);if(subject === ddVal.community.communityInfo.communityTitle) { digitalData = ddVal; setDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_ID, messageUid); dnmsNewPostSuccess(communityName, subject, messageUid, JSON.parse(npsDD).sophiaResponse); captureSnapshot('event'); cleanDigitalDataProperties([SOPHIA_EVENTS]); } localStorage.removeItem('npsDigitalData');}}function trackMergeSuccess(subject,community,messageId,contentType) { try{ const mergeMsgDD = localStorage.getItem('mergeMsgDigitalData'); if(mergeMsgDD) { const ddVal = JSON.parse(mergeMsgDD); if(messageId === ddVal.community.communityInfo.communityId) { digitalData = ddVal; setDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_CATEGORY, community); setDigitalDataProperty('digitalData.community.communityInfo.communityContentTab', contentType); setDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_TITLE, subject); captureSnapshot('event'); let cnvrstnIds = []; let slctdCnvrstnArr = ddVal.community.attributes.selectedConversations; for(let i=0;i 4) { let triggerBy = moveMergeTriggerDetails[0]; let cName = community; // merged to which community if(cName !== moveMergeTriggerDetails[1]){ cName = community + '|' + moveMergeTriggerDetails[1]; // merged to which community | from which community } let cId = messageId; let cType = moveMergeTriggerDetails[3]; //merged from which community type let msgType = moveMergeTriggerDetails[4]; let replyType = msgType!=='originalPost'?msgType:null; let xArr = [cName, cId, cType, messageId+'|'+cnvrstnIds.toString(), replyType]; // merged to which message | messages that got merged if(triggerBy === 'communityPage') { dnmsMoveMergeDeleteSuccessClick('Community','Community Controls', 'success', 'Merge', xArr); } else if(triggerBy === 'conversationPage') { dnmsMoveMergeDeleteSuccessClick('Conversation','Merge Conversation', 'click', 'Merge success', xArr); } localStorage.removeItem('moveMergeDeletetriggeredBy'); } } localStorage.removeItem('mergeMsgDigitalData'); } }catch(err){ console.log(err); }}function clearStorage(items) {for(let x=0; x 0) {$('.related-conversations-card').on('click', function(e) { if(e.target.hasAttribute('data-related-content-type')){ //section tab click events let destinationTab = e.target.getAttribute('data-related-content-type'); dnmsCPSectionTabClick(getDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_CATEGORY), 'related conversation', destinationTab); setPrimaryEvent('Community: relatedConversationLabelClick', SECTION_TAB_ACTION); setDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_CONTENT_TYPE, destinationTab); captureSnapshot('event'); } else{ let subject = e.target.getAttribute('data-related-conversation-subject'); let boardId = e.target.getAttribute('data-related-conversation-board'); let relatedCommContentType = getBoardType(boardId); let community = normalizeCategoryBoardId(); let target_href = e.target.href; let convo_id = e.target.getAttribute('data-related-conversation-id'); let org_convo_id = getDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_ID); dnmsRelatedConversationsClick(community, target_href, org_convo_id, convo_id, "", subject, relatedConvCampaignId, relatedConvControlGroupId, relatedConvVariationId, relatedCommContentType); setPrimaryEvent(RELATED_CONVERSATION_CLICK, RELATED_CONVERSATION_ACTION); cleanDigitalDataProperties([COMMUNITY_DD_PROPERTY]); setDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_CATEGORY, community); setDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_CONTENT_TYPE,relatedCommContentType); setDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_ID, convo_id); setDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_TITLE, subject); setDigitalDataProperty(SOPHIA_EVENTS,[{'CampaignId': relatedConvCampaignId, 'ControlGroupId': relatedConvControlGroupId, 'VariationId': relatedConvVariationId, 'ActionBlockId': relatedConvActionBlockId}]); captureSnapshot('event'); cleanDigitalDataProperties([SOPHIA_EVENTS]); } }); }}//Track actions on conversation and repliesif($('.lia-quilt-column-main_content').length > 0) { $('.lia-quilt-column-main_content').on('click', function(e){ let targetElement = $(e.target); //Track Report if(targetElement.hasClass('report__text')) { trackReportClick(targetElement); } //Track mark correct answer if(targetElement.hasClass('lia-component-solutions-action-mark-message-as-accepted-solution')) { trackMarkUnmarkCorrectAnswer('mark correct answer', targetElement); } //Track Unmark correct answer if(targetElement.hasClass('lia-component-solutions-action-unmark-message-as-accepted-solution')) { trackMarkUnmarkCorrectAnswer('unmark correct answer', targetElement); } //Track view history click if(targetElement.hasClass('view-message-history')) { trackViewHistoryClick(targetElement); } //Track move merge click if(targetElement.hasClass('move-message')) { trackMoveMergeClick(targetElement); if(getDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_CONTENT_TYPE) !== 'Discussion' ){ let authorId = $(targetElement).closest('.MessageView').find('.userStrip__link').attr('data-user-id'); if(authorId.length > 0) localStorage.setItem("mergeAuthor", authorId); } } //Track delete conversation/reply click if(targetElement.hasClass('delete-message-and-replies') || targetElement.hasClass('delete-message')) { trackDeleteMessageClick(targetElement); } //Track ban user click if(targetElement.hasClass('ban-user')) { trackBanUserClick(targetElement); } //Track follow click if(targetElement.hasClass('addMessageUserEmailSubscription')) { trackFollowUnfollowClick(targetElement, 'follow'); } //Track unfollow click if(targetElement.hasClass('removeMessageUserEmailSubscription')) { trackFollowUnfollowClick(targetElement, 'unfollow'); } //Track in response to if(targetElement.hasClass('lia-message-reply-in-response-to')) { setPrimaryEvent(REPLIES_IN_RESPONSE_TO, REPLY_ACTION); captureSnapshot('event'); dnmsTrackInResponseTo(getConversationPageDetails()); } });}//Track edit message clickif($('.edit-message').length > 0) { $('.edit-message').on('click', function(e){ trackEditMessageClick($(e.target)); });}//Track mark spam clickif($('.lia-component-spam-action-mark-message-as-spam').length > 0) { $('.lia-component-spam-action-mark-message-as-spam').on('click', function(e){ trackMarkSpamClick($(e.target)); });} //Track conversation page CC clicksvar ccElements = document.querySelectorAll(".cc-links-cta-container__anchor, .cc-links-banner-p2 a button");for (let i = 0; i < ccElements.length; i++) { if($(ccElements[i]).length) { $(ccElements[i]).on('click', function(e) { let ccType = e.currentTarget.getAttribute('data-type'); let ccurl = e.currentTarget.getAttribute('href'); if(ccType && CC_LINKS_TYPE[ccType]) { if (ccType == '4') { let primaryEvent = "Community: ManageAccountBtn_Click"; setPrimaryEvent(primaryEvent, CC_MANAGE_ACCOUNT_CLICK); setDigitalDataProperty(SOPHIA_EVENTS,[{'CampaignId': manageAccountCampaignId, 'ControlGroupId': manageAccountControlGroupId, 'VariationId': manageAccountVariationId, 'ActionBlockId': manageAccountActionBlockId}]); captureSnapshot('event'); cleanDigitalDataProperties([SOPHIA_EVENTS]); dnmsManageAccountEvent(getDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_CATEGORY), ccurl, 'ManageAccount', 'click', 'Conversation', manageAccountCampaignId, manageAccountVariationId, manageAccountControlGroupId); } else { let primaryEvent = CC_LINK1+CC_LINKS_TYPE[ccType]+CC_LINK2; setPrimaryEvent(primaryEvent, CC_LINK_CLICK); captureSnapshot('event'); dnmsCCLinkClick(getDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_CATEGORY), ccurl, CC_LINKS_TYPE[ccType], 'Conversation'); } } }); } }function trackFollowUnfollowClick(tElement, action) { let isFollowAction = action==='follow'; if(tElement.closest('.lia-thread-topic').length > 0) { setPrimaryEvent(isFollowAction?CONVERSATION_FOLLOW:CONVERSATION_UNFOLLOW, CONVERSATION_ACTION); //dunamis api call dnmsConversationActionsClick(action, getConversationPageDetails()); } else { setPrimaryEvent(isFollowAction?REPLY_FOLLOW:REPLY_UNFOLLOW, REPLY_ACTION); let replyType = getReplyType(tElement); if(replyType) { dnmsConversationReplyActionsClick(action, replyType, getConversationPageDetails()); } } cleanDigitalDataProperties([COMMUNITY_ATTRIBUTES]); captureSnapshot('event');}function trackBanUserClick(tElement) { if(tElement.closest('.lia-thread-topic').length > 0) { setPrimaryEvent(CONVERSATION_BAN_USER, CONVERSATION_ACTION); //dunamis api call dnmsConversationActionsClick('ban user', getConversationPageDetails()); } else { let replyType = getReplyType(tElement); if(replyType) { dnmsConversationReplyActionsClick('ban user', replyType, getConversationPageDetails()); } setPrimaryEvent(REPLY_BAN_USER, REPLY_ACTION); } cleanDigitalDataProperties([COMMUNITY_ATTRIBUTES]); captureSnapshot('event');}function trackMarkSpamClick(tElement) { if(tElement.closest('.lia-thread-topic').length > 0) { setPrimaryEvent(CONVERSATION_SPAM, CONVERSATION_ACTION); //dunamis api call let convArray = getConversationPageDetails(); dnmsConversationActionsClick('mark as spam', convArray); if(convArray.length > 1){ syncDataOnS3('Spam', convArray[1]); } } else { let replyType = getReplyType(tElement); if(replyType) { dnmsConversationReplyActionsClick('mark as spam', replyType, getConversationPageDetails()); } setPrimaryEvent(REPLY_SPAM, REPLY_ACTION); } cleanDigitalDataProperties([COMMUNITY_ATTRIBUTES]); captureSnapshot('event');}function trackDeleteMessageClick(tElement) { if(tElement.closest('.lia-thread-topic').length > 0) { setPrimaryEvent(CONVERSATION_DELETE, CONVERSATION_ACTION); //dunamis api call dnmsConversationActionsClick('delete the conversation', getConversationPageDetails()); localStorage.setItem('moveMergeDeletetriggeredBy','conversationPage:originalPost'+':'+getConversationPageDetails().toString()+':'+getDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_CONTENT_TYPE)); } else { let replyType = getReplyType(tElement); if(replyType) { dnmsConversationReplyActionsClick('delete the reply', replyType, getConversationPageDetails()); localStorage.setItem('moveMergeDeletetriggeredBy','conversationPage:'+replyType+':'+getConversationPageDetails().toString()+':'+getDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_CONTENT_TYPE)); } setPrimaryEvent(REPLY_DELETE, REPLY_ACTION); } cleanDigitalDataProperties([COMMUNITY_ATTRIBUTES]); captureSnapshot('event');}function trackMoveMergeClick(tElement) { localStorage.setItem("movingConversationId", getDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_ID)); if(tElement.closest('.lia-thread-topic').length > 0) { setPrimaryEvent(CONVERSATION_MOVE_MERGE, CONVERSATION_ACTION); //dunamis api call dnmsConversationActionsClick('move/merge the conversation', getConversationPageDetails()); localStorage.setItem('moveMergeDeletetriggeredBy','conversationPage:originalPost'+':'+getConversationPageDetails().toString()+':'+getDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_CONTENT_TYPE)); } else { let replyType = getReplyType(tElement); if(replyType) { dnmsConversationReplyActionsClick('move/merge the conversation', replyType, getConversationPageDetails()); localStorage.setItem('moveMergeDeletetriggeredBy','conversationPage:'+replyType+':'+getConversationPageDetails().toString()+':'+getDigitalDataProperty(COMMUNITY_CONTENT_TYPE)); } setPrimaryEvent(REPLY_MOVE_MERGE, REPLY_ACTION); } cleanDigitalDataProperties([COMMUNITY_ATTRIBUTES]); captureSnapshot('event');}function trackViewHistoryClick(tElement) { if(tElement.closest('.lia-thread-topic').length > 0) { setPrimaryEvent(CONVERSATION_VIEW_HISTORY, CONVERSATION_ACTION); //dunamis api call dnmsConversationActionsClick('view history', getConversationPageDetails()); } else { let replyType = getReplyType(tElement); if(replyType) { dnmsConversationReplyActionsClick('view history', replyType, getConversationPageDetails()); } setPrimaryEvent(REPLY_VIEW_HISTORY, REPLY_ACTION); } cleanDigitalDataProperties([COMMUNITY_ATTRIBUTES]); captureSnapshot('event');}function trackEditMessageClick(tElement) { if(tElement.closest('.lia-thread-topic').length > 0) { setPrimaryEvent(CONVERSATION_EDIT, CONVERSATION_ACTION); //dunamis api call dnmsConversationActionsClick('edit message', getConversationPageDetails()); localStorage.setItem('gpEditMessagePageNum', getCommunityCurrentPageNum()); } else { let replyType = getReplyType(tElement); if(replyType) { localStorage.setItem('gpEditMessagePageNum', getCommunityCurrentPageNum()); dnmsConversationReplyActionsClick('edit message', replyType, getConversationPageDetails()); localStorage.setItem('gpEditMessageType', replyType); } setPrimaryEvent(REPLY_EDIT, REPLY_ACTION); } cleanDigitalDataProperties([COMMUNITY_ATTRIBUTES]); captureSnapshot('event');}function trackReportClick(tElement) { let tempConversationPageDetails = getConversationPageDetails(); tempConversationPageDetails[2] = encodeURIComponent(tempConversationPageDetails[2]); localStorage.setItem('gpReportMessageDetails', tempConversationPageDetails); if(tElement.closest('.lia-thread-topic').length > 0) { setPrimaryEvent(CONVERSATION_REPORT, CONVERSATION_ACTION); //dunamis api call dnmsConversationActionsClick('report', getConversationPageDetails()); } else { let replyType = getReplyType(tElement); if(replyType) { dnmsConversationReplyActionsClick('report', replyType, getConversationPageDetails()); localStorage.setItem('gpReportMessageType', replyType); } setPrimaryEvent(REPLY_REPORT, REPLY_ACTION); } cleanDigitalDataProperties([COMMUNITY_ATTRIBUTES]); captureSnapshot('event');}function trackMarkUnmarkCorrectAnswer(action, tElement) { let correctFlag = action==='mark correct answer'; setPrimaryEvent(correctFlag?MARKED_CORRECT:UNMARKED_CORRECT, correctFlag?REPLY_MARKED_CORRECT:REPLY_UNMARKED_CORRECT); cleanDigitalDataProperties([COMMUNITY_ATTRIBUTES]); convDetails = getConversationPageDetails(); if(correctFlag){ convDetails = setSophiaPayload(convDetails); } captureSnapshot('event'); let replyType = getReplyType(tElement); if(replyType) { dnmsConversationReplyActionsClick(action, replyType, convDetails); } cleanDigitalDataProperties([SOPHIA_EVENTS]);}function detectRelatedConversationsLoad() { if($('.personalised-related-conversations').length > 0){ let targetNode = $('.personalised-related-conversations')[0]; let config = { childList: true }; let callback = function(mutationsList, observer) { for(let i=0; i 0) { status = $('.message-status-link')[0].innerText; } dnmsConversationStatusUpdate('success',getConversationPageDetails(), comment, status); setPrimaryEvent('Community: StatusChanged'+status.replace(' ',''),'conversationStatusUpdated'); setDigitalDataProperty(PRIMARY_FILTER, createGPFilterInfoObj(status, 'statusChange')); captureSnapshot('event'); localStorage.removeItem('messageStatusUpdate'); cleanDigitalDataProperties([PRIMARY_FILTER, FILTERS]); } catch(e){ console.log(e); }}function isReplyBodyEmpty() { let result = false; let xNode;if($('.mce-edit-area').length > 0 && $('.mce-edit-area').children().length > 0) { let mceEditAreaiFrames = $('.mce-edit-area').children(); for(let i=0; i 0 && (content[0].hasAttribute('data-mce-bogus') || tinymce.innerHTML === ' 2b1af7f3a8 https://sway.office.com/RItZRsSEp4CoKCot https://sway.office.com/YTOmjKS66slXLTYE https://sway.office.com/Z9bACd9qHX7gWkbS https://sway.office.com/CNbNj76Q2yRJut2p https://sway.office.com/7YGg5NdMwMjnlnAA https://sway.office.com/5lMWT3HL3SZUydW3 https://sway.office.com/6ptPVzb7kH8iPXGQ https://sway.office.com/mw7MYAI18E6Kz2eR https://sway.office.com/9Ynh2UJbLWUCACaM https://sway.office.com/xBdlzE9nirQG5rkG https://sway.office.com/eWiuqKr1wBeEL2B0 https://sway.office.com/O1PqnUfOFjCG88w7 https://sway.office.com/Aq9StO5ImPwdIK2W https://sway.office.com/thjG0Hn31JCIsWtv https://sway.office.com/ur2OtcYpAHKmS0A7 https://sway.office.com/TgqX8QmrNts9on9Q https://sway.office.com/gmM4mL8n3m1JjIaK https://sway.office.com/etCDYPPpbwOJ7rOP https://sway.office.com/wrWZDE3GWlXDBNaK https://sway.office.com/8AHqRA0mGkArgjoj https://sway.office.com/OtfNtouYBFu7usge https://sway.office.com/LMRvEofVfYw4WPjq https://sway.office.com/0MIqMZU4E3JclWBV https://sway.office.com/qcGGB9kLEUC0khZr https://sway.office.com/1pLS5W8kIN73FuFr https://sway.office.com/7ROvPBsMGIc5nLl6 https://sway.office.com/snG7TkHctqI4dfFj https://sway.office.com/axIhYpEbRlZLTEHh https://sway.office.com/Pc5dSncurF2MN2nO https://sway.office.com/6rP2wvtoCDQloIi4 https://sway.office.com/ds1QS5u0JriT937T https://sway.office.com/QCRoEQNGQtQ9fIm0 https://sway.office.com/QqLXoKJmE5tSmOyc https://sway.office.com/q9CEIOBdOoCVP45t https://sway.office.com/L6GY0NdZJ1W0GmYY https://sway.office.com/0ORD6TZbHPrhaJln https://sway.office.com/WCZOFdq3bmmphfgB https://sway.office.com/ZrNoXNT5allH5s8L https://sway.office.com/NWRfZUXBlUDC0CVY https://sway.office.com/M5JB7Iik1eeUtMzl https://sway.office.com/vDF12EoyTkFPhf18 https://sway.office.com/KeXDWYjjBkpxIgNx https://sway.office.com/WKHQgiPb1Qx1lpNH https://sway.office.com/oolcHTkFSXQyzHEp https://sway.office.com/JYNdHbQEeDvcSvpJ https://sway.office.com/1DqdiWmzT7wRNEC2 https://sway.office.com/J4aIuKfM17Y4lQMG https://sway.office.com/5WS29YHPOAEezgAZ https://sway.office.com/NM09Z6RxmEVAXbT8 https://sway.office.com/8hQCNglBHYrJNCYs https://sway.office.com/6UX33uJ5QkBAx4yh https://sway.office.com/qdqmMINiBGQ2VEEm https://sway.office.com/ss5MYgz2mJWt2IpW https://sway.office.com/o2IRhUJBIQyQ1LyO https://sway.office.com/MISDT4kpUsuI2tmZ https://sway.office.com/8j8Xw9N4Bu5TXjOY https://sway.office.com/CBr5XAOFfIYWW7vJ https://sway.office.com/M4hAWPDr3VwYiG0K https://sway.office.com/pG9gZB90YDDgS0ki https://sway.office.com/6QzheeBMJNtwNO90 https://sway.office.com/LSazweLhpku2fxVQ https://sway.office.com/EFQP4l9piv4RzCT9 https://sway.office.com/SvuOGfNKAPGTLxL7 https://sway.office.com/lSOGksZDDR7s8qyj https://sway.office.com/0XtUtGkRVmmaCGuP https://sway.office.com/bV4Kb8VM8dCcQYlP https://sway.office.com/p0BJ7l4teUMYI9O8 https://sway.office.com/0KAJpfZaSHO4nl7S https://sway.office.com/3znNy0DBrGSTXf2e https://sway.office.com/6Mf0EEFbMixqXJxy https://sway.office.com/USNMPmYfUIxDGtLN https://sway.office.com/D2GnIUTKtY7nAPCo https://sway.office.com/0RCJdsUnYHtUn9E0 https://sway.office.com/DekrWAF8lgAamaff https://sway.office.com/zgVfqqucgURPNKtj https://sway.office.com/YS0MpQXdOp6ut6vg https://sway.office.com/spUPMXWYTtgNcITD https://sway.office.com/SCfw9kIEnRHojFvQ https://sway.office.com/lrnLdCpOXORZvErX https://sway.office.com/9t4p9kdAR6tyTRA2

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¿Puede La IA Predecir Los Números De Lotería ((EXCLUSIVE)) DOWNLOAD ->->->-> https://ssurll.com/2t69wq Ganar la lotería es el sueño de muchos. Sin embargo, tener la suerte de ganar el premio gordo puede ser una tarea difícil, ya que las probabilidades de ganar el Powerball es 1 en 292 millones. Es decir, tienes más probabilidades de que te caiga un rayo, que ganar la lotería. Puesto que según indica National Geographic las probabilidades de que te caiga un rayo, en toda tu vida, es 1 en 3 millones. Pero no te debes desanimar ante estos datos, porque aquí comparto algunas aplicaciones que te pueden ayudar a ganar la lotería. Lottery Formula es una aplicación que te ayuda a escoger los números, de acuerdo a diferentes modelos matemáticos. Puesto que la aplicación se encarga de analizar constantemente los números que han salido ganadores en el Powerball, Mega Millions y loterías estatales, para indicar los números que tienen altas y bajas probabilidades de salir ganadores. De igual forma, la aplicación te indica cuales son los números que constantemente se repiten y cuáles son los números que tienen más probabilidades de salir en el próximo sorteo. Lottery Formula esta disponible en Google Play. La aplicación Crowd Lotto te puede ayudar a jugar la lotería, si lo haces con un grupo de amigos o compañeros de trabajo. En la aplicación puedes hacer una lista de todas las personas que participaron en el sorteo y cuánto dinero pagó cada persona. Por otro lado, la aplicación te informa de los números que tienen altas probabilidades de salir, los números que son tendencia en los Estados Unidos y las estadísticas de los números ganadores. Además en la aplicación puedes conocer cuáles son los números ganadores y escanear tu boleto para conocer si eres el afortunado. La aplicación está disponible en el App Store. Lottery App te puede ayudar a mantenerte informado de los números ganadores y puedes jugar el Powerball a través de las aplicación. Si usted compra los boletos a través de la aplicación usted podrá recibir sus premios o ganancias directamente a su cuenta bancaria, cuando gane. Del mismo modo, la aplicaciones te permite programar alertas para que no se te olvide jugar. La aplicación está disponible para iPhone y Android. Para que esté bien informado de los sorteos, eventos y de los números ganadores debe descargar la aplicación de la lotería de su estado. Por ejemplo, si vive en la ciudad de Nueva York usted puede descargar la aplicación New York Lottery para encontrar números ganadores y tiendas que venden lotería. La aplicación te permite escanear hasta 10 boletos de juegos menores con su iPhone. Además, puede establecer notificaciones cuando los premios mayores alcancen la cantidad de sus sueños. La aplicación New York Lottery está disponible en el App Store y en Google Play. ¿Es posible predecir los resultados de la lotería? Es una pregunta que ha suscitado mucho debate, pero lo cierto es que los juegos de lotería están diseñados de tal forma para que sus resultados dependan solamente del azar y no puedan ser adivinados por el ser humano antes de la fecha del sorteo. Pero, ¿y qué hay de la tecnología?, ¿es posible que sistemas tan avanzados como la inteligencia artificial, puedan llegar a donde el hombre no ha llegado?En los últimos años, los avances tecnológicos en el desarrollo de inteligencia artificial (también llamada IA) han sido inmensos, y hoy en día nos encontramos con herramientas que hace unos años solo podríamos imaginarnos en el cine. Pero, ¿qué es la inteligencia artificial? Es la ciencia de replicar las capacidades de la inteligencia humana en otros dispositivos como robots u ordenadores. Ganar la lotería Powerball requiere de suerte y azar, ya que los números son seleccionados al azar en el momento del sorteo. Sin embargo, hay algunas cosas que puedes hacer para aumentar tus posibilidades de ganar: Por lo tanto, podemos concluir que, aunque el ChatGTP aún no puede ayudarnos a predecir los resultados de la lotería, sí que es una herramienta muy útil a la hora de recoger información y consejos útiles sobre los diferentes sorteos. ¿Significa esto que podemos predecir los números de la Lotería del Niño con los números ganadores de otros años? Tristemente no, pero si alguien quiere demostrarnos que estamos equivocados, necesitará al menos tres demostraciones en directo para convencernos. Al igual que en la extracción de los datos, los modelos deben pasar por el mismo escrutinio. Deberías asegurar que tus modelos son una representación válida de la cuestión que estás intentando predecir. Consultarlo con expertos en la materia puede ser una buena idea: ¿quieres predecir la inflación en los próximos años? Bueno, entonces deberías hablar con un economista antes de definir el modelo. No puedes predecir la Lotería porque es algo puramente aleatorio; pero hay multitud de cosas en la vida que no lo son y pueden ser predecibles en algún modo. La analítica predictiva afecta, por ejemplo, a cualquiera que tenga un seguro: las primas que paga no se establecen por un generador de números al azar, sino por la predicción del riesgo en la vida de dicha persona y cómo se ha evadido o no ese riesgo en el pasado. No hace falta decir que saber predecir la tendencia futura de las acciones e índices se traduce en dinero contante y sonante, además de que también es necesario actuar en base a esas predicciones adelantándose a los demás inversores, antes de que el escenario sea descontado por todos en el mercado. Y ahora hay ya una nueva generación de Inteligencia Artificial (IA) que arroja una tasa de acierto a futuro que no puede ser fruto de la mera casualidad: sí, la IA ya acierta en un porcentaje muy elevado, y además con una tasa de acierto mucho mayor que la inmensa mayoría de los asesores bursátiles humanos. Porque, además, incluso esa inversión automatizada más primigenia que les citaba antes debe considerarse como un cierto tipo de IA de su momento, la diferencia es que ahora está mucho más evolucionada y desarrollada, y el hecho es que la IA ha pasado a acertar al predecir la evolución bursátil en un amplio rango de plazos temporales, mucho más allá de las micro-oscilaciones del mercado que en su día mayormente justificaron el nacimiento (y la rentabilidad) de los primeros robots de inversión. Llevo trabajando en Deep learning durante los \u00faltimos 4 a\u00f1os. La IA no predice la bolsa, y muy probablemente nunca lo har\u00e1. He visto a mucha gente hacer afirmaciones parecidas de predecir la bolsa y siempre se equivocan en c\u00f3mo hacen la configuraci\u00f3n del entrenamiento y nunca obtiene resultados extrapolables. Es decir, que les funciona a ellos para sus datos y cuando lo prueban en el mundo real no funciona nada. Normalmente se sobre ajustan a los datos que tienen. Y por qu\u00e9 digo que no funciona, porque para predecir la bolsa hace falta usar multitud de variables: noticias, opiniones de expertos, opiniones de las masas y un largo etc que ni siquiera conocemos bien. Si las tuvi\u00e9ramos todas podr\u00edamos predecir la bolsa pero nunca vamos a tenerlas todas. En el caso que se comenta, usar solo 6 meses son muy pocos datos, lo \u00fanico que podria aprender un algoritmo de IA es la tendencia de esos meses, la cual la sabe todo el mundo nada m\u00e1s ver las graficas. Adem\u00e1s tenemos el efecto cisne negro, que ser\u00eda imposible de predecir por IA. Os recuerdo que la IA aprende patrones y si no los hay no los puede aprender. Tampoco me parece suficiente decir que funciona un 60% de las veces, si consideramos que la bolsa tiene una tendencia a subir debida a la inflaci\u00f3n, seguro que cualquiera puede acertar m\u00e1s de un 60% de las veces diciendo que la bolsa siempre sube. En el caso hipot\u00e9tico de que hubiera IA capaz de predecir la bolsa y todo el mundo lo usase, lo \u00fanico que tendr\u00edas es un algoritmo capaz de predecir se a si mismo, lo cu\u00e1l ser\u00eda ca\u00f3tico e inmediatamente tendr\u00edas gente que no lo usar\u00eda y har\u00eda millones solo usando su sentido com\u00fan.Si alguien quiere convencerme de lo contrario, que me ense\u00f1e un paper cient\u00edfico d\u00f3nde se describa la experimentaci\u00f3n y muestre unos resultados parecidos. Yo hasta hoy no he visto ninguno as\u00ed.","content":"Llevo trabajando en Deep learning durante los \u00faltimos 4 a\u00f1os. La IA no predice la bolsa, y muy probablemente nunca lo har\u00e1. He visto a mucha gente hacer afirmaciones parecidas de predecir la bolsa y siempre se equivocan en c\u00f3mo hacen la configuraci\u00f3n del entrenamiento y nunca obtiene resultados extrapolables. Es decir, que les funciona a ellos para sus datos y cuando lo prueban en el mundo real no funciona nada. Normalmente se sobre ajustan a los datos que tienen. Y por qu\u00e9 digo que no funciona, porque para predecir la bolsa hace falta usar multitud de variables: noticias, opiniones de expertos, opiniones de las masas y un largo etc que ni siquiera conocemos bien. Si las tuvi\u00e9ramos todas podr\u00edamos predecir la bolsa pero nunca vamos a tenerlas todas. En el caso que se comenta, usar solo 6 meses son muy pocos datos, lo \u00fanico que podria aprender un algoritmo de IA es la tendencia de esos meses, la cual la sabe todo el mundo nada m\u00e1s ver las graficas. Adem\u00e1s tenemos el efecto cisne negro, que ser\u00eda imposible de predecir por IA. Os recuerdo que la IA aprende patrones y si no los hay no los puede aprender. Tampoco me parece suficiente decir que funciona un 60% de las veces, si consideramos que la bolsa tiene una tendencia a subir debida a la inflaci\u00f3n, seguro que cualquiera puede acertar m\u00e1s de un 60% de las veces diciendo que la bolsa siempre sube. \n\nEn el caso hipot\u00e9tico de que hubiera IA capaz de predecir la bolsa y todo el mundo lo usase, lo \u00fanico que tendr\u00edas es un algoritmo capaz de predecir se a si mismo, lo cu\u00e1l ser\u00eda ca\u00f3tico e inmediatamente tendr\u00edas gente que no lo usar\u00eda y har\u00eda millones solo usando su sentido com\u00fan.\n\nSi alguien quiere convencerme de lo contrario, que me ense\u00f1e un paper cient\u00edfico d\u00f3nde se describa la experimentaci\u00f3n y muestre unos resultados parecidos. Yo hasta hoy no he visto ninguno as\u00ed.","karma":"35.00","parent":"0","comment_edited_date":"","vote_count":"2","comment_level":2,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"0","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"28430","author":"","webpage":"","user_name":"jorgemf2000","karma_level":"22.00","iseditor":"0","global_id":"1295221","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"active","index":1,"avatar_type":"gravatar","avatar_link":"\/\/www.gravatar.com\/avatar\/72a0db82452f226266fed2362cbd67cd"},{"id":"216661","post_id":"38711","date":1565687089,"content_filtered":"Hola jorgemf2000, gran aportaci\u00f3n. Aunque yo parto en el titular de la noticia que afirma esa probabilidad de acierto del 79% que han publicado, me alegro de ver que un experto como t\u00fa en Deep Learning pone de relieve pr\u00e1cticamente los mismos \"peros\" que destaco en mi articulo: validez de predicciones s\u00f3lo en base a hist\u00f3ricos, impredecibilidad ante cisnes negros, imposibilidad actual de hacer valoraciones subjetivas, plazo temporal limitado, etc etc. Me alegra que estemos mayormente de acuerdo, y s\u00ed, m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de ese 79% habr\u00e1 que ver si es aplicable a todos los escenarios burs\u00e1tiles de ahora en adelante... Lo cual es verdad que es poco probable... ","content":"Hola jorgemf2000, gran aportaci\u00f3n. \n\nAunque yo parto en el titular de la noticia que afirma esa probabilidad de acierto del 79% que han publicado, me alegro de ver que un experto como t\u00fa en Deep Learning pone de relieve pr\u00e1cticamente los mismos \"peros\" que destaco en mi articulo: validez de predicciones s\u00f3lo en base a hist\u00f3ricos, impredecibilidad ante cisnes negros, imposibilidad actual de hacer valoraciones subjetivas, plazo temporal limitado, etc etc. \n\nMe alegra que estemos mayormente de acuerdo, y s\u00ed, m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de ese 79% habr\u00e1 que ver si es aplicable a todos los escenarios burs\u00e1tiles de ahora en adelante... Lo cual es verdad que es poco probable... ","karma":"13.00","parent":"216660","comment_edited_date":"","vote_count":"0","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"1","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"24155","author":"derblauemond","webpage":"","user_name":"derblauemond","karma_level":"64.00","iseditor":"1","global_id":"1095294","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"active","index":2,"avatar_type":"wsl","avatar_link":"\/\/img.weblogssl.com\/avatar\/mini\/1095294_1.png"},{"id":"216662","post_id":"38711","date":1565688173,"content_filtered":"Me uno con mi limitado conocimiento financiero para un peque\u00f1o aporte.Para m\u00ed el peligro (la utilidad) no est\u00e1 en que pueda predecir \"en base a\" sino la cat\u00e1strofe que puede suponer para alterar el mercado.Ser\u00e9 muy catastrofista, pero con la concentraci\u00f3n de los mass media y la acci\u00f3n de los mismos sobre \"la masa\" (ese simple y raso bodoque), cualquier presidente de la Fox de tres al cuarto va a saber y poder alterar el mercado seg\u00fan sus propias pretensiones o las de un tercero.El algoritmo va a conocer las variables que coment\u00e1is no se pueden tener en cuenta para una predicci\u00f3n deductiva, pero haciendo uso de la previa inductiva. Es decir, voy a lanzar esas variables de manera controlada y ver su resultado. Con ello, vamos a ver si puedo afectar a un valor (o decenas) en un momento dado seg\u00fan me interese.Yo lo veo MUY peligroso, pero habr\u00e1 que vivir con ello.","content":"Me uno con mi limitado conocimiento financiero para un peque\u00f1o aporte.\n\nPara m\u00ed el peligro (la utilidad) no est\u00e1 en que pueda predecir \"en base a\" sino la cat\u00e1strofe que puede suponer para alterar el mercado.\n\nSer\u00e9 muy catastrofista, pero con la concentraci\u00f3n de los mass media y la acci\u00f3n de los mismos sobre \"la masa\" (ese simple y raso bodoque), cualquier presidente de la Fox de tres al cuarto va a saber y poder alterar el mercado seg\u00fan sus propias pretensiones o las de un tercero.\n\nEl algoritmo va a conocer las variables que coment\u00e1is no se pueden tener en cuenta para una predicci\u00f3n deductiva, pero haciendo uso de la previa inductiva. Es decir, voy a lanzar esas variables de manera controlada y ver su resultado. Con ello, vamos a ver si puedo afectar a un valor (o decenas) en un momento dado seg\u00fan me interese.\n\nYo lo veo MUY peligroso, pero habr\u00e1 que vivir con ello.","karma":"0.00","parent":"216661","comment_edited_date":"","vote_count":"1","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"2","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"24537","author":"Usuario desactivado","webpage":"","user_name":null,"karma_level":"0.00","iseditor":"0","global_id":"83212","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"deactivated","index":3,"avatar_type":"deactivated","avatar_link":"https:\/\/i.blogs.es\/svg\/avatar-deactivated.svg"},{"id":"216685","post_id":"38711","date":1565784354,"content_filtered":"El articulo es sensacionalista. Tienes miedo a realidad que no existe. La m\u00e1quina no es sustituto del hombre, solo m\u00e1s r\u00e1pida haciendo c\u00e1lculos, aplicando los modelos de precios. No lo digo yo, es el coraz\u00f3n del neoliberalismo, la teor\u00eda de expectativas racionales y la eficiencia de los mercados al incorporar toda la informaci\u00f3n disponible. Ni tu, ni una IA, es capaz de predecir lo que va a pasar, pero la IA es mucho m\u00e1s r\u00e1pida que nosotros a la hora de incorporar a los precios lo que acaba de ocurrir. ","content":"El articulo es sensacionalista. Tienes miedo a realidad que no existe. \n\nLa m\u00e1quina no es sustituto del hombre, solo m\u00e1s r\u00e1pida haciendo c\u00e1lculos, aplicando los modelos de precios. \n\nNo lo digo yo, es el coraz\u00f3n del neoliberalismo, la teor\u00eda de expectativas racionales y la eficiencia de los mercados al incorporar toda la informaci\u00f3n disponible. \n\nNi tu, ni una IA, es capaz de predecir lo que va a pasar, pero la IA es mucho m\u00e1s r\u00e1pida que nosotros a la hora de incorporar a los precios lo que acaba de ocurrir. ","karma":"0.00","parent":"216662","comment_edited_date":"","vote_count":"0","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"3","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"27699","author":"Usuario desactivado","webpage":"","user_name":null,"karma_level":"0.00","iseditor":"0","global_id":"1245673","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"deactivated","index":13,"avatar_type":"deactivated","avatar_link":"https:\/\/i.blogs.es\/svg\/avatar-deactivated.svg"},{"id":"216691","post_id":"38711","date":1565791701,"content_filtered":"Hablamos de modelos predictivos con base en informaci\u00f3n previa.\u00bfPero y si habl\u00e1semos de modelos iterativos que al final devienen en predictivos?Pero, y he aqu\u00ed lo importante de lo que quer\u00eda expresar. Tampoco creo que hay un modelo sobre el mercado, pero s\u00ed lo puede haber sobre la alteraci\u00f3n de este. Y no lo mires en primer t\u00e9rmino en su conjunto sino sobre un valor concreto. Y trato de explicarlo con un ejemplo.El fen\u00f3meno Fox News a m\u00ed me MARAVILLA. Si buceas un poco sobre lo que es y significa en USA a nivel local y regional (adem\u00e1s con la adici\u00f3n de MSoft para el tema inet) comprender\u00e1s el monstruo que es y lo que si se lo propone puede hacer. Ej. Trump y fake news. \u00danele a ello la \"informaci\u00f3n\" dirigida a consumo y afianzamiento de pensamiento pol\u00edtico. Es decir, te llegan \u00fanicamente las noticias \"que quieres conocer, que coinciden con tu prejuicio\".Ll\u00e9valo al mercado y crea un modelo para ver c\u00f3mo evoluciona un valor concreto lanzando p\u00edldoras dirigidas a la poblaci\u00f3n que busca noticias sobre ese u otros valores similares, anejos o vectores.El modelo, tras x millones de iteraciones (noticias locales y respuesta local) sobre ese valor o los anteriormente expuestos.\u00bfQue quiero qu\u00e9 suba la cebada o baje el arroz y de ah\u00ed que una serie de valores o uno \u00fanico se hunda? noticias sobre el tiempo, cambio clim\u00e1tico, previsiones de modelos (que ve t\u00fa a saber de donde se lo sacan), ponlo en contraposici\u00f3n a un pa\u00eds eminentemente importador (subida de precio. ej. China) o, todo lo contrario, un excedente por buena cosecha de un pa\u00eds competidor, etc. etc. etc.\u00c9se y no otro es mi miedo. Saber c\u00f3mo afectar al mercado y predecir una respuesta concreta a una acci\u00f3n concreta.Ll\u00e1mame loco, pero yo lo veo muy factible.Es como lo que he visto en alg\u00fan que otro documental sobre mercados financieros y las miles de millones de operaciones que se dan por parte no de corredores tal y como lo conocemos, sino de manera \"autom\u00e1tica\" y en tiempos que se miden en milisegundos con las medidas que se han implementado en las distintas bolsas para evitar una alteraci\u00f3n del mercado.M\u00e1s que sensacionalista yo veo algo de informaci\u00f3n basada en un precepto err\u00f3neo, lo que no quita para que el mercado sea vulnerable a una injerencia externa y de manera no directa por parte de modelos predictivos que nada tienen que ver con el mercado en s\u00ed mismo.No s\u00e9 si me he expresado mejor o lo he liado m\u00e1s (mi cabeza, digo).","content":"Hablamos de modelos predictivos con base en informaci\u00f3n previa.\n\n\u00bfPero y si habl\u00e1semos de modelos iterativos que al final devienen en predictivos?\n\nPero, y he aqu\u00ed lo importante de lo que quer\u00eda expresar. Tampoco creo que hay un modelo sobre el mercado, pero s\u00ed lo puede haber sobre la alteraci\u00f3n de este. Y no lo mires en primer t\u00e9rmino en su conjunto sino sobre un valor concreto. Y trato de explicarlo con un ejemplo.\n\nEl fen\u00f3meno Fox News a m\u00ed me MARAVILLA. Si buceas un poco sobre lo que es y significa en USA a nivel local y regional (adem\u00e1s con la adici\u00f3n de MSoft para el tema inet) comprender\u00e1s el monstruo que es y lo que si se lo propone puede hacer. Ej. Trump y fake news. \u00danele a ello la \"informaci\u00f3n\" dirigida a consumo y afianzamiento de pensamiento pol\u00edtico. Es decir, te llegan \u00fanicamente las noticias \"que quieres conocer, que coinciden con tu prejuicio\".\n\nLl\u00e9valo al mercado y crea un modelo para ver c\u00f3mo evoluciona un valor concreto lanzando p\u00edldoras dirigidas a la poblaci\u00f3n que busca noticias sobre ese u otros valores similares, anejos o vectores.\n\nEl modelo, tras x millones de iteraciones (noticias locales y respuesta local) sobre ese valor o los anteriormente expuestos.\n\n\u00bfQue quiero qu\u00e9 suba la cebada o baje el arroz y de ah\u00ed que una serie de valores o uno \u00fanico se hunda? noticias sobre el tiempo, cambio clim\u00e1tico, previsiones de modelos (que ve t\u00fa a saber de donde se lo sacan), ponlo en contraposici\u00f3n a un pa\u00eds eminentemente importador (subida de precio. ej. China) o, todo lo contrario, un excedente por buena cosecha de un pa\u00eds competidor, etc. etc. etc.\n\n\u00c9se y no otro es mi miedo. Saber c\u00f3mo afectar al mercado y predecir una respuesta concreta a una acci\u00f3n concreta.\n\nLl\u00e1mame loco, pero yo lo veo muy factible.\n\nEs como lo que he visto en alg\u00fan que otro documental sobre mercados financieros y las miles de millones de operaciones que se dan por parte no de corredores tal y como lo conocemos, sino de manera \"autom\u00e1tica\" y en tiempos que se miden en milisegundos con las medidas que se han implementado en las distintas bolsas para evitar una alteraci\u00f3n del mercado.\n\nM\u00e1s que sensacionalista yo veo algo de informaci\u00f3n basada en un precepto err\u00f3neo, lo que no quita para que el mercado sea vulnerable a una injerencia externa y de manera no directa por parte de modelos predictivos que nada tienen que ver con el mercado en s\u00ed mismo.\n\nNo s\u00e9 si me he expresado mejor o lo he liado m\u00e1s (mi cabeza, digo).","karma":"0.00","parent":"216685","comment_edited_date":"","vote_count":"1","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"4","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"24537","author":"Usuario desactivado","webpage":"","user_name":null,"karma_level":"0.00","iseditor":"0","global_id":"83212","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"deactivated","index":17,"avatar_type":"deactivated","avatar_link":"https:\/\/i.blogs.es\/svg\/avatar-deactivated.svg"},{"id":"216731","post_id":"38711","date":1566053379,"content_filtered":"Hola luisjosemaria. El art\u00edculo no es sensacionalista, puesto que en \u00e9l mismo ya dejo clara mi cr\u00edtica hacia idolatrar la IA actual como un or\u00e1culo de Delfos que todo lo sabe. Decir lo contrario ser\u00eda una falta de visi\u00f3n realista. Pero igualmente es una clara falta de visi\u00f3n negar autom\u00e1ticamente que en alg\u00fan punto del futuro no vaya a acabar siendo as\u00ed. Si examina usted modelos actuales de IA, que ya podemos ver a d\u00eda de hoy, podr\u00e1 comprobar c\u00f3mo ya estamos rebasando ese l\u00edmite conceptual en el que la IA hace meros c\u00e1lculos, y algunos pueden ser calificados ya como algo cercano a un tipo de reflexi\u00f3n primigenia. Al fin y al cabo nuestra capacidad de reflexi\u00f3n en cierta medida tambi\u00e9n son c\u00e1lculos y consulta de datos hist\u00f3ricos... ","content":"Hola luisjosemaria. El art\u00edculo no es sensacionalista, puesto que en \u00e9l mismo ya dejo clara mi cr\u00edtica hacia idolatrar la IA actual como un or\u00e1culo de Delfos que todo lo sabe. Decir lo contrario ser\u00eda una falta de visi\u00f3n realista. \n\n\nPero igualmente es una clara falta de visi\u00f3n negar autom\u00e1ticamente que en alg\u00fan punto del futuro no vaya a acabar siendo as\u00ed. Si examina usted modelos actuales de IA, que ya podemos ver a d\u00eda de hoy, podr\u00e1 comprobar c\u00f3mo ya estamos rebasando ese l\u00edmite conceptual en el que la IA hace meros c\u00e1lculos, y algunos pueden ser calificados ya como algo cercano a un tipo de reflexi\u00f3n primigenia. \n\nAl fin y al cabo nuestra capacidad de reflexi\u00f3n en cierta medida tambi\u00e9n son c\u00e1lculos y consulta de datos hist\u00f3ricos... ","karma":"13.00","parent":"216685","comment_edited_date":"","vote_count":"0","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"4","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"24155","author":"derblauemond","webpage":"","user_name":"derblauemond","karma_level":"64.00","iseditor":"1","global_id":"1095294","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"active","index":19,"avatar_type":"wsl","avatar_link":"\/\/img.weblogssl.com\/avatar\/mini\/1095294_1.png"},{"id":"216684","post_id":"38711","date":1565784125,"content_filtered":"Hola Jorge, Me temo que los mercados son eficientes en tercer grado, es decir, que incorporan toda la informaci\u00f3n disponible, as\u00ed que olv\u00eddate de predecir el futuro con informaci\u00f3n pasada. Solo la informaci\u00f3n confidencial es \u00fatil, y es delito usarla. Antes se trabajaba con modelos para determinar los precios, y ahora directamente han quitado al analista para que todo se haga autom\u00e1ticamente. Se llama ARBITRAJE, la peque\u00f1a ganancia por ser el que incorpora la nueva informaci\u00f3n a los precios, y como la miner\u00eda de Bitcoin, solo el primero, el que modifica el ledger, se lleva el gato al agua. \n","content":"Hola Jorge, \n\nMe temo que los mercados son eficientes en tercer grado, es decir, que incorporan toda la informaci\u00f3n disponible, as\u00ed que olv\u00eddate de predecir el futuro con informaci\u00f3n pasada. \n\nSolo la informaci\u00f3n confidencial es \u00fatil, y es delito usarla. \n\nAntes se trabajaba con modelos para determinar los precios, y ahora directamente han quitado al analista para que todo se haga autom\u00e1ticamente. Se llama ARBITRAJE, la peque\u00f1a ganancia por ser el que incorpora la nueva informaci\u00f3n a los precios, y como la miner\u00eda de Bitcoin, solo el primero, el que modifica el ledger, se lleva el gato al agua. \n","karma":"0.00","parent":"216660","comment_edited_date":"","vote_count":"0","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"1","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"27699","author":"Usuario desactivado","webpage":"","user_name":null,"karma_level":"0.00","iseditor":"0","global_id":"1245673","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"deactivated","index":12,"avatar_type":"deactivated","avatar_link":"https:\/\/i.blogs.es\/svg\/avatar-deactivated.svg"},{"id":"216688","post_id":"38711","date":1565788039,"content_filtered":"No tiene mucho sentido lo que dices, al menos no desde el punto de vista de como funciona la toma de decisiones. Toda decisi\u00f3n se toma en base a informaci\u00f3n pasada, ya sea en los \u00faltimos 5 m\u00ednutos o 500 d\u00edas. La \u00fanica diferencia entre un humano y una m\u00e1quina es que la m\u00e1quina tiene limitada el n\u00famero de variables a considerar, mientras que los humanos en principio no. Es decir, que \u00e9l que m\u00e1s sabe se lleva el gato al agua, como es normal. Pero esto se podr\u00eda hacer con una m\u00e1quina si a alguien le diera por a\u00f1adir toda la informaci\u00f3n posible, lo cual es muy muy dif\u00edcil.He trabajado en sistemas predictivos que usan arbitraje, se usan modelos matem\u00e1ticos para aprovecharse de las fluctuaciones del mercado y esos modelos se crean a mano. Una m\u00e1quina puede crearlos autom\u00e1ticamente y ser mejor (esto era parte de mi proyecto).El Bitcoin es un mal ejemplo ya que es un mercado no regulado y donde unos pocos actores que controlan la mayor\u00eda de los activos toman las decisiones e influyen directamente en el mercado.","content":"No tiene mucho sentido lo que dices, al menos no desde el punto de vista de como funciona la toma de decisiones. Toda decisi\u00f3n se toma en base a informaci\u00f3n pasada, ya sea en los \u00faltimos 5 m\u00ednutos o 500 d\u00edas. La \u00fanica diferencia entre un humano y una m\u00e1quina es que la m\u00e1quina tiene limitada el n\u00famero de variables a considerar, mientras que los humanos en principio no. Es decir, que \u00e9l que m\u00e1s sabe se lleva el gato al agua, como es normal. Pero esto se podr\u00eda hacer con una m\u00e1quina si a alguien le diera por a\u00f1adir toda la informaci\u00f3n posible, lo cual es muy muy dif\u00edcil.\n\nHe trabajado en sistemas predictivos que usan arbitraje, se usan modelos matem\u00e1ticos para aprovecharse de las fluctuaciones del mercado y esos modelos se crean a mano. Una m\u00e1quina puede crearlos autom\u00e1ticamente y ser mejor (esto era parte de mi proyecto).\n\nEl Bitcoin es un mal ejemplo ya que es un mercado no regulado y donde unos pocos actores que controlan la mayor\u00eda de los activos toman las decisiones e influyen directamente en el mercado.","karma":"5.00","parent":"216684","comment_edited_date":"","vote_count":"0","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"2","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"28430","author":"","webpage":"","user_name":"jorgemf2000","karma_level":"22.00","iseditor":"0","global_id":"1295221","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"active","index":15,"avatar_type":"gravatar","avatar_link":"\/\/www.gravatar.com\/avatar\/72a0db82452f226266fed2362cbd67cd"},{"id":"216663","post_id":"38711","date":1565688403,"content_filtered":"Como yo tambi\u00e9n estoy en IT y comparto t\u00fa opini\u00f3n, te dejo mi karma.Entender\u00e9 por el art\u00edculo que no hay un gran entendimiento de la parte t\u00e9cnica detr\u00e1s de una IA.","content":"Como yo tambi\u00e9n estoy en IT y comparto t\u00fa opini\u00f3n, te dejo mi karma.\n\nEntender\u00e9 por el art\u00edculo que no hay un gran entendimiento de la parte t\u00e9cnica detr\u00e1s de una IA.","karma":"8.00","parent":"216660","comment_edited_date":"","vote_count":"0","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"1","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"26603","author":"","webpage":"","user_name":"nyek","karma_level":"22.00","iseditor":"0","global_id":"422957","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"active","index":4,"avatar_type":"gravatar","avatar_link":"\/\/www.gravatar.com\/avatar\/604fc322dabb3bdd4c165416a77f0860"},{"id":"216667","post_id":"38711","date":1565690114,"content_filtered":"Hola nyek, te copio lo que ya le he contestado a jorgemf2000 en otro comentario: tanto \u00e9l como yo estamos de acuerdo en casi todos los puntos, y de hecho yo ya los nombro tambi\u00e9n en el articulo, aunque es cierto que mi post da un m\u00ednimo m\u00e1s de credibilidad a unos resultados que, sin embargo, insisto en que se basan casi siempre en hist\u00f3ricos. Lo que le coment\u00e9 ya a jorgemf2000:\"Hola jorgemf2000, gran aportaci\u00f3n.Aunque yo parto en el titular de la noticia que afirma esa probabilidad de acierto del 79% que han publicado, me alegro de ver que un experto como t\u00fa en Deep Learning pone de relieve pr\u00e1cticamente los mismos \"peros\" que destaco en mi articulo: validez de predicciones s\u00f3lo en base a hist\u00f3ricos, impredecibilidad ante cisnes negros, imposibilidad actual de hacer valoraciones subjetivas, plazo temporal limitado, etc etc.Me alegra que estemos mayormente de acuerdo, y s\u00ed, m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de ese 79% habr\u00e1 que ver si es aplicable a todos los escenarios burs\u00e1tiles de ahora en adelante... Lo cual es verdad que es poco probable...\"","content":"Hola nyek, te copio lo que ya le he contestado a jorgemf2000 en otro comentario: tanto \u00e9l como yo estamos de acuerdo en casi todos los puntos, y de hecho yo ya los nombro tambi\u00e9n en el articulo, aunque es cierto que mi post da un m\u00ednimo m\u00e1s de credibilidad a unos resultados que, sin embargo, insisto en que se basan casi siempre en hist\u00f3ricos. \n\nLo que le coment\u00e9 ya a jorgemf2000:\n\n\"Hola jorgemf2000, gran aportaci\u00f3n.\n\nAunque yo parto en el titular de la noticia que afirma esa probabilidad de acierto del 79% que han publicado, me alegro de ver que un experto como t\u00fa en Deep Learning pone de relieve pr\u00e1cticamente los mismos \"peros\" que destaco en mi articulo: validez de predicciones s\u00f3lo en base a hist\u00f3ricos, impredecibilidad ante cisnes negros, imposibilidad actual de hacer valoraciones subjetivas, plazo temporal limitado, etc etc.\n\nMe alegra que estemos mayormente de acuerdo, y s\u00ed, m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de ese 79% habr\u00e1 que ver si es aplicable a todos los escenarios burs\u00e1tiles de ahora en adelante... Lo cual es verdad que es poco probable...\"","karma":"13.00","parent":"216663","comment_edited_date":"","vote_count":"0","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"2","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"24155","author":"derblauemond","webpage":"","user_name":"derblauemond","karma_level":"64.00","iseditor":"1","global_id":"1095294","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"active","index":8,"avatar_type":"wsl","avatar_link":"\/\/img.weblogssl.com\/avatar\/mini\/1095294_1.png"},{"id":"216683","post_id":"38711","date":1565783810,"content_filtered":"Falso querida LunaAzul. La Teor\u00eda de Expectativas Racionales se cumple en la bolsa y los mercados son eficientes en tercer grado: solo la informaci\u00f3n confidencial permite generar ganancias porque toda la informaci\u00f3n pasada est\u00e1 incorporada.No quiero liarme, pero lo que hacen los modelos es arbitraje, incorporar la informaci\u00f3n, y ah\u00ed la ganancia es m\u00ednima y desaparece tan r\u00e1pido como trabajan las m\u00e1quinas.La panacea de la bolsa, saber que va a pasar con el precio de la acci\u00f3n m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de unos minutos, sigue siendo impredecible. \u00bfAcaso quieren cargarse el neoliberalismo? Qu\u00e9 le pregunten a Fama. ","content":"Falso querida LunaAzul. \n\nLa Teor\u00eda de Expectativas Racionales se cumple en la bolsa y los mercados son eficientes en tercer grado: solo la informaci\u00f3n confidencial permite generar ganancias porque toda la informaci\u00f3n pasada est\u00e1 incorporada.\n\nNo quiero liarme, pero lo que hacen los modelos es arbitraje, incorporar la informaci\u00f3n, y ah\u00ed la ganancia es m\u00ednima y desaparece tan r\u00e1pido como trabajan las m\u00e1quinas.\n\nLa panacea de la bolsa, saber que va a pasar con el precio de la acci\u00f3n m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de unos minutos, sigue siendo impredecible. \n\n\u00bfAcaso quieren cargarse el neoliberalismo? Qu\u00e9 le pregunten a Fama. ","karma":"0.00","parent":"0","comment_edited_date":"","vote_count":"0","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"0","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"27699","author":"Usuario desactivado","webpage":"","user_name":null,"karma_level":"0.00","iseditor":"0","global_id":"1245673","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"deactivated","index":11,"avatar_type":"deactivated","avatar_link":"https:\/\/i.blogs.es\/svg\/avatar-deactivated.svg"},{"id":"216730","post_id":"38711","date":1566052736,"content_filtered":"Hmmmm... Su comentario me resulta interesante, pero no acabo de estar de acuerdo. Es cierto que en el corto plazo la ganancia en bolsa viene del arbitraje. Pero en el medio y, sobre todo en el largo plazo, la bolsa \"mete el patumen\" muchas veces, y adem\u00e1s buena parte de esas veces lo hace de forma sostenida y persistente, dando opci\u00f3n a tomar posiciones a contracorriente, que con el tiempo dar\u00e1n beneficios con relativa seguridad.Actualmente pienso que es el caso de las posiciones bajistas sobre la bolsa actual: desde que Trump llegase al poder, viven en un espejismo irreal que las ha catapultado de forma artificial y sin mucho fundamento, como les vengo escribiendo desde hace meses (y en la Bolsa espa\u00f1ola ya se ha descontado parte). Al tiempo. ","content":"Hmmmm... Su comentario me resulta interesante, pero no acabo de estar de acuerdo. \n\nEs cierto que en el corto plazo la ganancia en bolsa viene del arbitraje. Pero en el medio y, sobre todo en el largo plazo, la bolsa \"mete el patumen\" muchas veces, y adem\u00e1s buena parte de esas veces lo hace de forma sostenida y persistente, dando opci\u00f3n a tomar posiciones a contracorriente, que con el tiempo dar\u00e1n beneficios con relativa seguridad.\n\nActualmente pienso que es el caso de las posiciones bajistas sobre la bolsa actual: desde que Trump llegase al poder, viven en un espejismo irreal que las ha catapultado de forma artificial y sin mucho fundamento, como les vengo escribiendo desde hace meses (y en la Bolsa espa\u00f1ola ya se ha descontado parte). Al tiempo. ","karma":"13.00","parent":"216683","comment_edited_date":1566052788,"vote_count":"0","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"1","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"24155","author":"derblauemond","webpage":"","user_name":"derblauemond","karma_level":"64.00","iseditor":"1","global_id":"1095294","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"active","index":18,"avatar_type":"wsl","avatar_link":"\/\/img.weblogssl.com\/avatar\/mini\/1095294_1.png"},{"id":"216664","post_id":"38711","date":1565688424,"content_filtered":"Lo que no podemos es pensar que la IA por s\u00ed conozca el futuro. Lo interesante ser\u00e1 la informaci\u00f3n que pueda proveer para que un humano tome una decisi\u00f3n. Eso marcar\u00e1 la diferencia.\nYo por mi parte aconsejo siempre que puedo salir de bolsa. Es un juego s\u00f3lo para profesionales, el resto somos pardillos pagando comisiones por administraci\u00f3n de acciones.","content":"Lo que no podemos es pensar que la IA por s\u00ed conozca el futuro. Lo interesante ser\u00e1 la informaci\u00f3n que pueda proveer para que un humano tome una decisi\u00f3n. Eso marcar\u00e1 la diferencia.\nYo por mi parte aconsejo siempre que puedo salir de bolsa. Es un juego s\u00f3lo para profesionales, el resto somos pardillos pagando comisiones por administraci\u00f3n de acciones.","karma":"8.00","parent":"0","comment_edited_date":"","vote_count":"0","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"0","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"16174","author":"","webpage":"","user_name":"protege","karma_level":"22.00","iseditor":"0","global_id":"696090","facebook_uid":"175839232781503","user_status":"active","index":5,"avatar_type":"facebook","avatar_link":"\/\/graph.facebook.com\/175839232781503\/picture"},{"id":"216666","post_id":"38711","date":1565689859,"content_filtered":"Excelente punto: mucho me temo que la intervenci\u00f3n humana es y seguir\u00e1 siendo necesaria para determinadas operativas y escenarios de mercado. ","content":"Excelente punto: mucho me temo que la intervenci\u00f3n humana es y seguir\u00e1 siendo necesaria para determinadas operativas y escenarios de mercado. ","karma":"13.00","parent":"216664","comment_edited_date":"","vote_count":"0","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"1","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"24155","author":"derblauemond","webpage":"","user_name":"derblauemond","karma_level":"64.00","iseditor":"1","global_id":"1095294","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"active","index":7,"avatar_type":"wsl","avatar_link":"\/\/img.weblogssl.com\/avatar\/mini\/1095294_1.png"},{"id":"216669","post_id":"38711","date":1565690696,"content_filtered":"Bueno, bueno. F\u00edjate que yo soy de la opini\u00f3n contraria.Llevo un buen tiempo con valores en bolsa y, despreocup\u00e1ndose un poco, a la larga todo va bien. Eso s\u00ed, me limito a valores refugio.Adem\u00e1s, quiero pensar que lo ideal ser\u00eda que el peque\u00f1o inversor (o fetmoinversor, quiero expresar) copase el mercado. Si as\u00ed fuera el poder de acci\u00f3n de fondos y tiburones varios se ver\u00eda muy limitado.Como sabe toda gran compa\u00f1\u00eda, el mejor cliente es el cliente dormido. Extrapol\u00e1ndolo a la bolsa ser\u00eda todo (y siempre seg\u00fan mi opini\u00f3n) mejor. Precisamente para evitar gastos no nos movemos ni pretendemos alterar el mercado.","content":"Bueno, bueno. F\u00edjate que yo soy de la opini\u00f3n contraria.\n\nLlevo un buen tiempo con valores en bolsa y, despreocup\u00e1ndose un poco, a la larga todo va bien. Eso s\u00ed, me limito a valores refugio.\n\nAdem\u00e1s, quiero pensar que lo ideal ser\u00eda que el peque\u00f1o inversor (o fetmoinversor, quiero expresar) copase el mercado. Si as\u00ed fuera el poder de acci\u00f3n de fondos y tiburones varios se ver\u00eda muy limitado.\n\nComo sabe toda gran compa\u00f1\u00eda, el mejor cliente es el cliente dormido. Extrapol\u00e1ndolo a la bolsa ser\u00eda todo (y siempre seg\u00fan mi opini\u00f3n) mejor. Precisamente para evitar gastos no nos movemos ni pretendemos alterar el mercado.","karma":"0.00","parent":"216664","comment_edited_date":1565690730,"vote_count":"0","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"1","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"24537","author":"Usuario desactivado","webpage":"","user_name":null,"karma_level":"0.00","iseditor":"0","global_id":"83212","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"deactivated","index":10,"avatar_type":"deactivated","avatar_link":"https:\/\/i.blogs.es\/svg\/avatar-deactivated.svg"},{"id":"216665","post_id":"38711","date":1565689588,"content_filtered":"En mi humilde opini\u00f3n no creo que ninguna IA pueda predecir algo tan increiblemente complejo como el comportamiento de los mercados, a no ser que en un muy hipotetico caso todos los inversores usaran el mismo algoritmo predictivo, es decir que la propia IA se volviera tautologica y se tuviera en cuenta solo a si misma para la predicci\u00f3n como variable principal y casi \u00fanica, lo cual llevar\u00eda al sinsentido de que el mercado funcionaria no en base al comportamiento de los diferentes agentes sino a la suposici\u00f3n de ese comportamiento por un algoritmo, rozando lo nihilista.","content":"En mi humilde opini\u00f3n no creo que ninguna IA pueda predecir algo tan increiblemente complejo como el comportamiento de los mercados, a no ser que en un muy hipotetico caso todos los inversores usaran el mismo algoritmo predictivo, es decir que la propia IA se volviera tautologica y se tuviera en cuenta solo a si misma para la predicci\u00f3n como variable principal y casi \u00fanica, lo cual llevar\u00eda al sinsentido de que el mercado funcionaria no en base al comportamiento de los diferentes agentes sino a la suposici\u00f3n de ese comportamiento por un algoritmo, rozando lo nihilista.","karma":"5.00","parent":"0","comment_edited_date":"","vote_count":"0","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"0","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"25755","author":"","webpage":"","user_name":"ajopollo","karma_level":"22.00","iseditor":"0","global_id":"531161","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"active","index":6,"avatar_type":"gravatar","avatar_link":"\/\/www.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a48da4c769987bc8574647db85fc0198"},{"id":"216668","post_id":"38711","date":1565690205,"content_filtered":"As\u00ed es ajopollo, as\u00ed es. Tal y como apunto en el post, el verdadero valor de esta IA es como herramienta de apoyo, y s\u00f3lo en determinados plazos, escenarios y operativas de mercado. ","content":"As\u00ed es ajopollo, as\u00ed es. Tal y como apunto en el post, el verdadero valor de esta IA es como herramienta de apoyo, y s\u00f3lo en determinados plazos, escenarios y operativas de mercado. ","karma":"13.00","parent":"216665","comment_edited_date":"","vote_count":"0","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"1","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"24155","author":"derblauemond","webpage":"","user_name":"derblauemond","karma_level":"64.00","iseditor":"1","global_id":"1095294","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"active","index":9,"avatar_type":"wsl","avatar_link":"\/\/img.weblogssl.com\/avatar\/mini\/1095294_1.png"},{"id":"216686","post_id":"38711","date":1565784458,"content_filtered":"Querida LunaAzul, Decir que la IA predice el 79% de los movimientos en bolsa, sin concretar que se refiere a minutos y no meses, es sensacionalista... La IA no predice el futuro sino que incorpora con rapidez la nueva informaci\u00f3n. Si el precio de las naranjas se duplica, el de la tarta de naranjas va a subir. No ha predecido el futuro, sino calculado el impacto de lo que ya ha ocurrido: que han subido las naranjas. Un cordial saludoP.D. No he pasado del titular, no he le\u00eddo el art\u00edculo. Me apasion\u00f3 el tema de la eficiencia de los mercados cuando lo estudi\u00e9. \nhttps:\/\/es.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hip%C3%B3tesis_del_mercado_eficiente\n","content":"Querida LunaAzul, \n\nDecir que la IA predice el 79% de los movimientos en bolsa, sin concretar que se refiere a minutos y no meses, es sensacionalista... \n\nLa IA no predice el futuro sino que incorpora con rapidez la nueva informaci\u00f3n. Si el precio de las naranjas se duplica, el de la tarta de naranjas va a subir. No ha predecido el futuro, sino calculado el impacto de lo que ya ha ocurrido: que han subido las naranjas. \n\nUn cordial saludo\n\nP.D. No he pasado del titular, no he le\u00eddo el art\u00edculo. Me apasion\u00f3 el tema de la eficiencia de los mercados cuando lo estudi\u00e9. \nhttps:\/\/es.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hip%C3%B3tesis_del_mercado_eficiente\n","karma":"0.00","parent":"216668","comment_edited_date":1565784712,"vote_count":"0","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"2","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"27699","author":"Usuario desactivado","webpage":"","user_name":null,"karma_level":"0.00","iseditor":"0","global_id":"1245673","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"deactivated","index":14,"avatar_type":"deactivated","avatar_link":"https:\/\/i.blogs.es\/svg\/avatar-deactivated.svg"},{"id":"216689","post_id":"38711","date":1565788274,"content_filtered":"Estas confundido con la IA en muchas cosas. En primer lugar nada predice el futuro, ni la IA ni los adivinos. La IA aprende patrones que se repiten, igual que hacen las personas con su intuici\u00f3n. La diferencia entre las personas y la IA es que esos patrones aprendidos son estad\u00edsticamente significativos en el caso de la IA mientras que en los humanos es \"intuici\u00f3n\", es decir, que la IA funciona mucho mejor.P.D. leer antes de hablar suele ser mejor que hablar sin saber sobre qu\u00e9","content":"Estas confundido con la IA en muchas cosas. En primer lugar nada predice el futuro, ni la IA ni los adivinos. La IA aprende patrones que se repiten, igual que hacen las personas con su intuici\u00f3n. La diferencia entre las personas y la IA es que esos patrones aprendidos son estad\u00edsticamente significativos en el caso de la IA mientras que en los humanos es \"intuici\u00f3n\", es decir, que la IA funciona mucho mejor.\n\nP.D. leer antes de hablar suele ser mejor que hablar sin saber sobre qu\u00e9","karma":"5.00","parent":"216686","comment_edited_date":"","vote_count":"0","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"3","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"28430","author":"","webpage":"","user_name":"jorgemf2000","karma_level":"22.00","iseditor":"0","global_id":"1295221","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"active","index":16,"avatar_type":"gravatar","avatar_link":"\/\/www.gravatar.com\/avatar\/72a0db82452f226266fed2362cbd67cd"},{"id":"216732","post_id":"38711","date":1566054123,"content_filtered":"Excelente respuesta, estimado jorgemf2000.Sin leerle todav\u00eda a usted, ya le hab\u00eda contestado a este lector en el mismo sentido que t\u00fa, pero he de reconocer que tu respuesta ha sido mejor que la m\u00eda. Enhorabuena. ","content":"Excelente respuesta, estimado jorgemf2000.\n\nSin leerle todav\u00eda a usted, ya le hab\u00eda contestado a este lector en el mismo sentido que t\u00fa, pero he de reconocer que tu respuesta ha sido mejor que la m\u00eda. Enhorabuena. ","karma":"13.00","parent":"216689","comment_edited_date":"","vote_count":"0","comment_level":3,"comment_deleted_date":"","tree_level":"4","comment_approved":"1","comment_author":"","user_id":"24155","author":"derblauemond","webpage":"","user_name":"derblauemond","karma_level":"64.00","iseditor":"1","global_id":"1095294","facebook_uid":null,"user_status":"active","index":20,"avatar_type":"wsl","avatar_link":"\/\/img.weblogssl.com\/avatar\/mini\/1095294_1.png"}],"meta":{"more_records":"false","start":0,"total":20,"order":"valued","totalCount":20,"commentStatus":"closed"}}; AML.Comments.config.postId = 38711; AML.Comments.config.enableSocialShare = "0"; AML.Comments.config.status = "closed"; AML.Comments.config.campaignDate = "08_Feb_2023"; AML.Comments.config.enableImageUploading = "0"; googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display("div-gpt-cen2"); }); googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display("div-gpt-bot2"); }); Temas de interés Startup oferta y demanda sueldo mínimo 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Public-key authentication between a VanDyke Software client application and a non-VShell server such as OpenSSH requires generation of a public/private key pair and placing the public-key file on the server in the right location and in a format supported by the Secure Shell server. The public key can be uploaded to a VShell server at the end of the Key Generation wizard process, or at any time later through the Session Options dialog. Use the following steps to upload an existing public-key file: *Note that the upload instructions apply only to servers like VanDyke Software's VShell that implement the Secure Shell Public Key Subsystem (RFC 4819). Although there may be server implementations that support the public-key subsystem, those connecting to servers that aren't VShell will typically need to use manual methods to place their public-key files on the server to meet the server's requirements. Uploaded files represent a significant risk to applications. 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There are two places it is exposed in the UI: If you'd like to be able to use shell integration as root, you have twooptions. The first option, presuming you use bash, is to become root with sudo-s (which loads your .bashrc as root) and add this to your .bashrc: For some users, installing a login script on every host they connect to is notan option. To be sure, modifying root's login script is usually a bad idea. In these casesyou can get the benefits of shell integration by defining triggers. The following triggers are of interest: iTerm2 links in libssh2, and does not shell out to scp. It respects /etc/known_hosts and /.ssh/known_hosts, and will update the latter file appropriately. Host fingerprints are verified. Password, keyboard-interactive, and public-key authentication are supported. Private keys by default come from /.ssh/id_rsa, id_dsa, or id_ecdsa, and may be encrypted with an optional passphrase. 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